Modelling and Analysis of Trend and Forecast for Banana crop of Area, Production, Productivity and Productivity of water at Tihamah Plain of Hodeidah in West of Yemen

Abstract

Banana crop has a wide spread in Yemen, a production of crop is covered countries needed and a part of production has been exported to several arabic countries  . total area occupied about 28 per cent and production is an 87,914 metric ton about 30 per cent of the totally of fruit in the Tihamah plain of Hodeidah. This work aims to modeling and analysis of trends and forecasting for banana crop, area, production. Productivity, productivity of water of 20 years from 2002 to 2021. Tihamah plain of Hodeidah located west of Yemen. The data secondary was collected from statistical handbook of agriculture in ministry of agriculture and irrigation of Yemen. To this work, three models of simple regression were compared to chosen the best fitted model in order for analysis, trends and forecast during 20 years between 2002 and 2021, several parameters were estimated and evaluated, R2, AdjR2, MAPE, RMSE, U-STATISTIC and TIC for each model. Also, CDVI and CV were done. The result indicated that the logarithmic model was the best fitted for analysis trends and forecast for production, productivity and productivity of water, is given by: Y= 14211ln(x)+36394, Y= 1.8379ln(x)+7.0126 and Y= -525.9ln(x)+3557.9 respectively, similarly linear model was the best for area is given by: Y= 37.53 × (x) + 3597.8. AGR, CV and CDVI were done. CDVI and CV, the study revealed that Low Instability, CDVI<15 and CV varied between 3.99 to 17.73%, for AGR recorded 1.28, 4.32, 3.17 and -3.00 for area, production, productivity and productivity respectively, this result revealed that there are future risks of water uses for banana crop irrigation, A forecast for next years of banana production can be used for plan demand to banana production and sustainable management of agricultural resources and ground water.